Every summer, before the first kickoff, sportsbooks start posting futures odds: Super Bowl champion, division winners, MVP candidates, and more. Futures bets are wagers on events that will be decided weeks or months down the line.
For some, it’s a way to ride with their favorite team all season. For sharp bettors, it’s an opportunity to find early mispriced odds before the market corrects. Either way, futures betting in sports plays a big role in bankroll strategy and adds long-term excitement to a season.
This guide explains what futures bets are, how payouts work, and smart strategies for using them to your advantage.
What Is Futures Betting in Sports?
A futures bet is any wager on an outcome that won’t be settled until later in the season. Examples include:
- Which team will win the Super Bowl?
- Who will be league MVP?
- How many wins will a team finish with?
Unlike daily bets, futures tie up your money for weeks or months. That’s why managing your stake size is just as important as picking the right team.
Examples of Futures Bets
NFL
- Chiefs to win the Super Bowl (+600)
- Aaron Rodgers to win MVP (+2500)
- Bills over 10.5 wins (-120)
NBA
- Celtics to win the NBA Championship (+350)
- Luka Dončić to win MVP (+800)
MLB
- Braves to win the World Series (+500)
- Dodgers regular season win total over/under
How Futures Odds Work
Futures use American odds like any other bet. But because they’re long-term, prices often shift dramatically throughout the season.
Example:
- In August, Lions to win the Super Bowl = +3000.
- By Week 10, if Lions are 8–2, odds may shorten to +900.
- A bettor who grabbed +3000 has massive closing line value compared to the mid-season price.
Why Sportsbooks Love Futures
- Hold Percentage – Futures markets often carry higher juice than daily lines.
- Bankroll Lock-Up – Your money is tied up, giving the book cash flow.
- Public Bias – Casual bettors hammer favorites and popular teams, creating inefficiencies.
Why Bettors Should Care About Futures
- Hedge Opportunities
- If you bet Bengals +2000 to win the Super Bowl and they reach the AFC Championship, you can hedge profitably.
- Value Hunting
- Underdogs with upside (like young MVP candidates) often present better expected value.
- Entertainment Factor
- A futures ticket gives you season-long rooting interest.
Strategies for Futures Betting
1. Shop for the Best Line
Futures odds vary wildly. One book might have the Cowboys at +1400, another at +2000. That difference matters.
2. Timing Is Everything
- Preseason: Best time for long shots.
- Midseason: Can grab value when the public overreacts.
- Late season: Safer bets but lower payouts.
3. Diversify Your Futures Portfolio
Think of futures like investing:
- Sprinkle small bets across multiple teams or players.
- Avoid going “all-in” on one outcome.
4. Use Win Totals to Gauge Market Opinion
Season win totals often reveal how sportsbooks really view a team’s strength beyond hype.
5. Lean on Metrics & Projections
Power rankings, strength of schedule, injury forecasts, and advanced stats all feed into smarter futures betting.
💡 The Club Assistant™ Tip:
- Ask: “Which NFL win totals have TPC Score™ 7 or higher and show early-season value?”
- Ask: “Which MVP bets shift from TPC 5 to TPC 7 based on current form?”
The Math Behind Futures Betting
Because payouts are higher, variance is also higher.
Example: $100 bets on 10 teams to win the Super Bowl at +2000.
- If none win → -$1,000.
- If one hits → +$2,000 profit, net +$1,000.
That’s why bankroll management matters — futures can swing results dramatically.
Common Mistakes in Futures Betting
- Overexposure to Favorites – Taking Chiefs +600 every year rarely offers value.
- Tying Up Too Much Bankroll – Don’t lock more than 5–10% of your roll into futures.
- Ignoring Market Shifts – Odds change weekly. Missing the right entry point is costly.
- Forgetting to Hedge – Futures are perfect hedging opportunities — ignoring this is leaving money on the table.
Futures Betting and the TPC Score™
The TPC Score™ helps identify when a futures bet has true long-term value. For example:
- A preseason bet might only rate TPC 5.
- By midseason, as data improves, that same team’s futures odds may align with TPC 8.
Using The Club Assistant™, bettors can track these shifts automatically and act before the market catches up.
Conclusion
Futures betting in sports can be exciting and profitable — if approached correctly. It’s about finding value early, shopping lines, and managing bankroll risk.
Casual bettors often chase favorites or throw money on long shots for fun. Sharper bettors treat futures as a portfolio, leveraging line movement and hedging.
With the TPC Score™ and The Club Assistant™, you can make futures betting less about guessing and more about value-based strategy.
👉 Ready to start betting smarter? Join The Pick Club Today and get access to The Club Assistant™, PropView™, and futures analysis powered by thousands of simulations.
Nick Travers is Senior Editor of The Pick Club, with 10+ years of experience in sports betting analysis and predictive modeling.